Article 2024-06-02 72

CNY Surges Again, New Wealth Shuffle Begins

Recently, have you noticed more discussions about exchange rates around you?

In social circles, relatives and friends are asking, "Is the Chinese yuan about to take off?"

and "Should we rush to exchange back to US dollars?"

This fervor is even more intense than the high temperatures of summer.

Indeed, when you open your phone and check the exchange rate apps, the continuously rising numbers in red are pleasing to the eye, especially for those who recently exchanged their US dollars for Chinese yuan; they must be having a good dream.

However, the appreciation of the yuan is not some sort of "mystical art."

It is supported by solid economic logic.

Over the past few years, the global economy has been hit by the pandemic, experiencing ups and downs.

In contrast, China's economic recovery has been gaining momentum, like a giant ship sailing steadily on the right course.

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Data does not lie.

Whether it's the continuous rise in the manufacturing PMI index or the gradual recovery of the consumer market, they are all sending a clear signal: China's economy is stable!

The strong performance of the domestic economy alone is not enough to explain the strong appreciation of the yuan exchange rate.

Remember, exchange rates are like a mirror, reflecting the strength comparison between two economies.

Recently, the US dollar index has been a bit "stumbling."

The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate hikes have slowed down, and coupled with poor US economic data, the US dollar, which was once a "stabilizing force," seems to be wavering.

As one rises and the other falls, the yuan exchange rate naturally goes up.

For us ordinary people, the most direct feeling of yuan appreciation is that "money is more valuable."

Studying abroad, traveling, and shopping can save a lot of money.

This is undoubtedly good news for those with overseas consumption needs.

However, yuan appreciation is not "all benefits and no drawbacks."

For export-oriented enterprises, yuan appreciation means that the price competitiveness of their products in the international market is reduced, and profit margins are squeezed.

This is not good news.

At this point, someone might ask, since yuan appreciation is not favorable to export enterprises, why does the country still let the yuan appreciate?

This involves a deeper issue - "economic structural adjustment."

For a long time, China's economy has been highly dependent on exports, but this is not a long-term solution.

In order to achieve sustainable economic development, China is actively promoting industrial upgrading, transforming from "Made in China" to "Created in China."

The appreciation of the yuan can force enterprises to innovate and improve the added value of their products, thus breaking away from the dependence on low-end exports.

The impact of yuan appreciation on us ordinary people is far from over.

Do you remember the "real estate speculation fever"?

At that time, many people exchanged yuan for US dollars and went overseas to buy houses and land.

Now, with the appreciation of the yuan, the attractiveness of overseas assets has decreased, and the value of domestic assets has relatively increased.

This may trigger a new round of asset allocation adjustments.

In addition to the real estate market, yuan appreciation will also affect the stock market, bond market, and other financial markets.

Generally speaking, yuan appreciation will attract foreign capital to flow into the Chinese market and push up asset prices.

The factors affecting the stock and bond markets are complex and changeable.

Investors still need to make rational judgments based on their own risk preferences and investment goals, and do not blindly follow the trend.

Speaking of investment, it is impossible not to mention the hot US stock market in recent years, especially those tech giants, which have become the "hot cakes" in the eyes of investors.

Against the background of the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes and the slowdown in global economic growth, how long can the US stock market continue to be hot?

It is undeniable that US technology companies have advantages in innovation and profitability, but it is also necessary to see that the valuation of the US stock market is already at a historical high, and the risk of bubbles cannot be ignored.

Once the Federal Reserve's monetary policy turns, or the global economy encounters a "black swan" event, the US stock market may experience a significant correction.

In contrast, China's economy is stable and improving, and the attractiveness of yuan assets is continuously increasing, providing investors with a new choice.

Investment has risks, and entering the market should be done with caution.

Whether it is in the domestic market or overseas market, investors should do their homework and make rational judgments, and do not blindly chase the rise and kill the fall.

The fluctuation of the yuan exchange rate affects everyone's nerves.

Both ordinary people and enterprises need to closely monitor the changes in exchange rates and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner to stand invincible in the new round of wealth changes.

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