Fed's Big Move Disrupts Global Markets: Boom or Bust? Investors Anxious!
Global large-scale investors remain vigilant against market volatility, as the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cut has sparked concerns over whether the U.S. economy will boom or fall into recession, leading to a chaotic outlook for global stock, bond, and currency markets.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 50 basis points, exceeding the 25 basis points anticipated by most economists and market participants.
Following the Fed's interest rate decision, the euro, pound, Norwegian krone, Australian dollar, and other currencies strengthened against the U.S. dollar, and U.S. stocks rose significantly (although they closed slightly down on Wednesday).
However, the Bank of England announced on Thursday that it would keep interest rates unchanged due to uncertainties in inflation prospects and global demand.
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This is a sign that the Fed's rate cut has made policymakers outside the U.S. uneasy.
Traders have reduced their expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England.
Some fund managers warn that the Fed's substantial rate cut could provide too much support to the already strong U.S. economy, thereby boosting global economic growth, but it could also drive up the prices of commodities and consumer goods.
Trevor Greetham, Head of Multi-Asset at Royal London, said, "I think it's more likely that the Fed's rate cut is too aggressive, leading to accelerated economic growth.
At that point, there may not be a lot of global rate cuts."
He also expects increased market volatility in the future.
Tim Drayson, Head of Economics at Legal & General Investment Management, said, "I think there will be more turmoil in the market, there are too many risks."
He was referring to the prospect of a slowdown in U.S. economic growth.
Traders almost unanimously reduced their expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in November to around 80% and believe that the European Central Bank is unlikely to cut rates next month.
However, investors believe that this forecast is not stable.
European rate setters are grappling with economic growth below that of the U.S., but inflation is a more thorny issue, and their policy path and market depend on various unpredictable scenarios of the U.S. economy.
Shamil Gohil, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity International, said that weak economic growth in the U.S. and the UK could prompt the Bank of England to accelerate rate cuts, boosting UK government bonds.
But he also added that if the current expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed prove to be wrong, these bets could easily be affected, "This could be a situation where all markets sell off."
He also said that overall, he expects increased global market volatility.
The core inflation rate in the eurozone is slightly below 3%, and European Central Bank policymakers are divided on the path of future rate cuts after rate cuts in June and September.
Trevor Greetham said that if the Fed continues to cut rates, further strengthening of the euro against the dollar will weaken Europe's export competitiveness, thereby putting more pressure on the European Central Bank.
Marcus Jennings, Fixed Income Strategist at Schroders, said that a dovish Fed combined with a weak eurozone economy makes German government bonds more attractive.
Sheldon MacDonald, Chief Investment Officer at Marlborough, said that market volatility may rise as stock market valuations suggest that the U.S. economy will be boosted by rate cuts, but bond pricing suggests a recession.
Investors also warn that if U.S. economic data changes the market's view of the Fed's next move, the outlook for global central banks could change.
Ben Gutteridge, Multi-Asset Manager at Invesco, said that if the Fed prevents a recession, it will boost trades around central bank policy divergence, such as betting that the Bank of England's tightening policy will strengthen the pound against the dollar.
But he also said that a softening of the U.S. economy will depress global stock markets and support the bond market, thereby narrowing regional market differences.
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