The inevitable has finally come to pass: the risk of a hard landing for the U.S. economy has intensified, and the global market's panic over a U.S. economic recession is growing.

Indeed, with the release of the U.S. non-farm data for July, it can be described as a "tsunami" for the U.S. stock market, and an "earth-shattering thunderbolt" for the global economy!

This implies that the global economic crisis may have only just begun.

Let's take a look at the data: In July, the U.S. non-farm employment figure dropped significantly from 179,000 to 114,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the number of part-time workers increased to 4.57 million, up by 346,000 from the previous month, reaching the highest level in nearly three years.

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This data triggered a recession indicator with a 100% accuracy rate, known as the Sum rule.

This means that a U.S. economic recession is now inevitable.

However, what's worse is that the risk of a hard landing for the U.S. economy is increasing further.

In response, Wall Street giants such as Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase have all started to adjust their expectations for U.S. dollar interest rate cuts.

Everyone is now predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at once, and there may be several more cuts within the year, with a total reduction of 108 basis points!

The news has caused a "tsunami" in the U.S. stock market, with the Nasdaq falling by 2.38%, the Dow Jones dropping nearly 2.5% at its lowest, and the S&P 500 falling nearly 2.7% at its lowest.

It can be said that chip stocks and technology stocks have almost completely collapsed.

Intel plummeted by 26%, the largest drop in over 40 years!

In addition, U.S. bank stocks are also falling sharply, with none of JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, or Morgan Stanley being spared.

Even Chinese concept stocks have been hit hard, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 5.9% for the week!

On the other hand, all U.S. Treasury yields have fallen by at least 12 basis points, the U.S. dollar index has plummeted by 1%, and the spot gold price has risen by nearly 1.3% in a day, reaching a historical high of $2,483.6.

Such poor non-farm data, aggressive interest rate cut expectations, and people's excessive risk-avoiding behavior all indicate that a hard landing for the U.S. economy may really be coming.

So why did the U.S. have to go to this step?

In fact, the Federal Reserve could have cut interest rates in advance to achieve a soft economic landing!

The root cause is that the U.S. regards China and Russia as the primary threats.

This means that as long as China's economy does not fall, the U.S. will continue to hold on.

The U.S. wants to use a strong U.S. dollar interest rate hike policy to drain our stock market, short our real estate market, and even ignore its own high inflation to restrict the development of China's manufacturing industry.

This is the zero-sum game in the bones of the United States.

However, what the U.S. did not expect is that our country, with a strong economic foundation, and through a series of policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and opening up to the outside world, has withstood this round of fierce winds and rains from the U.S., and now the fierce winds and rains of the U.S. itself are coming.

At this point, what we are leading is still a global win-win market economic order.

We do not want the U.S. economy to fall, we just hope that the U.S. can change its hegemonic and zero-sum game attitude.

But what we think is not what the U.S. thinks.

So, we cannot avoid a hard landing for the U.S. economy.

It can be said that this is caused by the U.S.'s wrong decisions, and it is also the result of the U.S. in the Sino-American game.

However, speaking of which, if the U.S. economy has a hard landing, it is a major injury to the global economy.

This means that the U.S. dollar interest rate cut is not the end of the global economic crisis, but just the beginning.

So, what kind of heavy blow will a hard landing of the U.S. economy bring to the global economy?

First, the global stock market and foreign exchange market will have violent fluctuations.

Although preemptive interest rate cuts are beneficial to the U.S. stock market and the foreign exchange market of other countries, recessionary interest rate cuts will increase market panic.

Because the U.S. economy is going to have a big earthquake, who will put money in the stock market?

It can be said that even U.S. Treasury bonds will be quickly sold off and replaced with gold and other risk-avoiding assets in hand.

This will lead to a collapse of the U.S. stock market, and then affect the stability of the global stock market.

At that time, a large amount of capital will evaporate, and the global economic crisis will really come.

As for the foreign exchange market, due to the hard landing of the U.S. economy, global investor confidence will decline, and capital flow will decrease, and the stability of other countries' currencies will be impacted to a certain extent.

Speaking of which, now even the U.S. dollar is unreliable, whose currency will be reliable?

At this time, other countries will adopt loose monetary policy to deal with the hard landing of the U.S. economy.

But this policy will increase the uncertainty of the domestic economy and the sense of debt crisis, which is also fatal.

Second, international trade is severely impacted, and many countries will be heavily indebted.

Due to the hard landing of the U.S. economy, the global consumption index plummets, and investor confidence will also decline, and the foreign trade exports of various countries will be a mess.

Because who will buy the products you make?

At this time, a large number of enterprises will either reduce wages or lay off employees!

The country will fall into chaos.

For example, when the U.S. economy declined in 1975, it led to unemployment of 8 million Americans.

In addition, after losing the economic growth point, the scale of foreign debt in the country is rising, and at this time many developing countries will be unable to repay foreign debt, leading to national bankruptcy.

For example, in the 1982 Latin American debt crisis, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil and other countries all announced the termination or postponement of foreign debt repayment!

For example, in the 1997 Asian financial crisis, South Korea was forced to reach a series of humiliating agreements, giving up part of its economic control, in order to obtain more than $50 billion in loans provided by the International Monetary Fund for self-help!

It can be seen that the hard landing of the U.S. economy, while the U.S. is in pain, is also harvesting the wealth of the world, and each round of economic crisis takes more than 10 years to buffer.

In this way, the global economic crisis is really just beginning!

Finally, I want to say that this time the U.S. may not be so lucky, because the U.S. was based on the hegemony of the petrodollar, it can be said that the whole world is saving the U.S. from the water and fire, but now the U.S. dollar has become a pure credit currency, U.S. Treasury bonds have become a Ponzi scheme, and the pace of global de-dollarization is accelerating, so who will save the U.S. economy in the end?

This is a question worth thinking about for the U.S.

In other words, with the acceleration of the global de-dollarization process, the global economy will also usher in a painful day.

However, as the saying goes, there is no establishment without destruction.

In this painful process, it will only accelerate the reshaping of the global economic order, and the U.S. may really have to wrap itself in a cocoon.

What do you think?