Article 2024-07-17 30

Fed Signals Rate Cut, Stability Assured!

Just two days ago, Fed Chairman Powell finally spoke up again, saying that it's time to adjust policy, but we still need to base our decisions on future data performance.

This single sentence, seemingly a tautology, was considered by global investors as the strongest signal for a US dollar rate cut.

Consequently, the price of gold hit a new historical high within a week.

Some analysts even believe that gold will rise to $2,800 per ounce.

Let's take a look at a set of data: this year alone, the price of gold has already risen by more than 20%.

Compared to US Treasury bond yields, the price of gold has significantly deviated from its intrinsic value!

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However, at this very moment, Bank of America stepped forward and said that we should do what central banks around the world are doing, which is to continue buying gold, because with the arrival of US rate cuts, there may be an inflation rebound next year.

On the surface, Bank of America's statement seems correct, but if we combine this statement with Powell's implicit rate cut expectations and the following event, then the significance behind it is extraordinary.

This event is that there has been a net outflow of $2.5 billion in the gold market.

This means that investors are not blindly chasing high prices but are taking profits and cashing out.

So, is Bank of America's continued inducement for investors to buy gold really as simple as market forecasting?

This might be another trap set by the United States!

Because if the US dollar can't harvest anymore, then it will use gold to continue harvesting the wealth of other countries.

Why do I say this?

Let me explain from four aspects!

1.

The rise in gold prices is a leading indicator of inflation.

To control inflation, one must first control the price of gold.

It can be said that during periods of economic inflation, the price of gold is the first to be reflected.

Because everyone fears devaluation of money, they will choose to buy gold to resist inflation risk during the early stages of economic inflation.

In this situation, it will lead to the rise in gold prices before the rise in other commodity prices.

Conversely, to suppress inflation, suppressing gold prices can also play an indirect role in controlling inflation.

Looking back at the Fed's reticent rate cut performance, isn't the goal to continue to create a strong US dollar index, thereby suppressing the rise in gold prices to a certain extent?

Now that the Fed may be forced to cut rates, it can be said that the rate cut is inevitable, but controlling inflation is still the ultimate goal.

In this situation, do you think the United States will suppress the price of gold next?

2.

The United States wants to maintain the hegemonic status of the US dollar and must suppress the price of gold.

We all know that gold and the US dollar are both global hard currencies, and to a certain extent, they are in an inverse relationship.

That is, when the US dollar is strong, gold is weak; when the US dollar is weak, gold is strong.

However, the trend of gold prices in the past two years has deviated from the value of the US dollar.

What does this mean?

It means that while the US dollar has been raising interest rates, the price of gold has also been rising, and the price of gold has not followed the Fed's expected target.

The reason behind this is that everyone is pessimistic about the US economy, and central banks around the world are buying a large amount of gold to de-dollarize.

In this situation, even if the US dollar cuts interest rates, the United States will also suppress the price of gold through various means to maintain the hegemonic status of the US dollar.

Just think about it, if the world is de-dollarizing, will the United States let everyone de-dollarize so easily?

3.

Gold is the best tool for the United States to harvest wealth after the US dollar.

Throughout history, whenever the US economy has declined, the US dollar has played its role in the global hegemonic status, harvesting the wealth of the world without any bottom line.

It is precisely because of the global hegemonic status of the US dollar that even if the United States makes a huge mistake, it can use the wealth of other countries to make up for it.

This is the reason why the United States has always been so unscrupulous.

However, in recent years, the international economic situation has undergone a huge change, and the strong interest rate hikes of the US dollar can only harvest some small fry, and the major countries have also begun to unite to jointly resist the hegemony of the US dollar.

Do you think the United States will give up so easily?

It can be said that after the US dollar harvest is hopeless, shorting gold is the last game for the United States to harvest the wealth of other countries.

Because now the central banks of various countries have stored a large amount of gold in their vaults.

It can also be said that only by shorting gold can the United States heal itself.

Do you think the United States will miss this great opportunity?

We mentioned above whether the United States has the possibility to short gold, and now let's talk about whether the United States has the strength to short gold.

We must know that the United States has the world's largest gold futures market, that is, the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In addition, the United States is also the world's largest gold reserve country, with gold reserves of about 8133.5 tons, accounting for 22.9% of the global gold reserves.

This means that the United States has the strength to sell a large amount of gold, or to sell a large number of gold contracts in the futures market, thereby artificially suppressing the price of gold.

In this case, is Bank of America now calling for everyone to continue to buy a large amount of gold, is it preparing for the final harvest?

Finally, I want to say that the current global trend of de-dollarization is irreversible, and with the sustainability of global inflation, we need not doubt that the price of gold will continue to rise in the future.

However, in the short term, the United States is very likely to create a gold price crisis, thereby successfully harvesting the wealth of the world.

This is another trap set by the United States!

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